Counting before the season: holidays and sales

New Year is two weeks away. A customer comes in and asks for a string of lights, you say "we had some", and you cannot find a single box on the shelf. A week later it is the opposite: the hundred pieces you bought sit in a corner of the stockroom, and when you lift them, everything is dusty. Both situations have one cause: nobody knew exactly how much stock there was before the season. Preparing for a holiday should start with a count, not an order.

Why count right before the season

On an ordinary day a mistake is cheap: an item runs out and you bring more tomorrow. In season, sales are squeezed into a week or two and the supplier is busy too. By the time the order arrives, the holiday may be over. On the other hand, demand drops sharply afterwards, and a surplus batch freezes your money for a year.

Write the holiday dates down in advance: New Year, Navruz, 1 September, the wedding season. The dates of Ramadan and Qurban Hayit change every year, so check them against the calendar.

The preparation schedule

1. 6–8 weeks before: count all your seasonal goods and review last year's sales. Imported goods can take three or four weeks to arrive, so this is not too early.
2. 5 weeks before: estimate demand and place the order.
3. 3 weeks before: count what arrived and test it.
4. 1 week before: put the goods on the shelves, write the price tags and set a reserve aside.
5. During the season: once a day count the 5–6 items that sell fastest.

Five columns on the count sheet are enough for each seasonal item: name, last year's sales, usable stock now, order and arrival date. The same sheet is useful after the holiday: add the real sales and you have a ready table for next year.

Working out the order

The formula: expected sales = last season's sales × (1 + growth). Order = expected sales × 1.1 − usable stock on hand − goods in transit. The 1.1 is a ten per cent reserve.

An example: string lights, 10 metres. In the three weeks before the holiday last year you sold 140. If you expect 15 per cent more this year: 140 × 1.15 = 161. With the reserve: 161 × 1.1 ≈ 177. There are 45 on the shelf and nothing in transit. Order: 177 − 45 = 132.

If nobody recorded last year's sales, do not buy a big batch in the first year. Order 70 per cent of your estimate now and the rest in the first week, by the real selling rate, which lowers the risk.

Testing and sorting

Many seasonal goods have sat in storage for a year: lights may not work, decorations may be broken, packaging may be crushed. During the count sort the goods into three groups: working, faulty, needs cleaning or repacking. Plug the lights in: before a holiday you do not want a customer coming back to say "it does not light up". Take faulty goods off the shop floor at once and ask whether the supplier will take them back.

Record last year's leftovers separately too and prepare them for sale first: old batch to the front, new one behind.

A separate rule for online sellers: before announcing a marketplace promotion or a discount in a Telegram channel, make sure the quantity you put on offer does not exceed the real stock. Otherwise you will have to write to customers that the item has sold out.

After the season

In the first two weeks after the holiday count what is left and write it down: what, how many, in what condition. Another valuable note is which item sold out, and on what day. Those dates become the basis for next year's plan. There are three options for leftovers: sell them with a discount, store them dry and dust-free until next season, or offer them wholesale to friendly shops. The choice depends on the quantity and the price, but take the decision after the count.

Conclusion

Preparing for a season means a good count, last year's data, simple arithmetic and testing the goods in advance. The holiday does the rest. If there is a lot of seasonal stock and you cannot manage it yourselves, the Sanab team counts it, sorts it by condition and hands over the result in a clear report.