A trial batch of a new item: buy little, measure properly

At the market you spot a new item: attractive, an average price, and the seller says, "It is selling like mad right now." You trust him and bring back your usual 40. A month passes, 28 are still on the shelf, and your money is tied up in them. When you take a product for the first time, nobody knows exactly how it will sell: neither you nor the seller. So it is wise not to buy a new item in bulk at once but to try it first in a small quantity, a trial batch.

What a trial batch is and how big it should be

A trial batch is a small quantity of a new item, bought to see how it sells. How much? Enough that losing it would not hurt. Usually that is a quarter or a third of your normal batch, or 6 to 12 pieces.

For example, you normally buy 40 of one item; for the new one you take 10. The important thing is to set yourself a question beforehand: "If 6 sell in three weeks, I continue," or "if they do not sell, I stop." A rule written in advance will not later be broken by excitement or pity.

What to record

Open a separate line in your table for the new item. The columns are simple:

• date, quantity and purchase price;
• selling price;
• the date and quantity of each sale;
• "asked but did not buy": the customer showed interest but was put off by the price or colour;
• returns and the reason.

The last two columns give the most valuable information. If many ask and few buy, people like the item but the price is high. If nobody asks, the item stirs no interest.

For the trial, put the item on a separate shelf or in a separate box with a "new" label. Then you will not mix it with the rest, and counting is easier.

A line might read: "Red flask, 1 March, 10 pieces, bought at 45,000, sold at 65,000 so'm." Add each sale date below it, and in three weeks you have numbers instead of guesses.

Work out the selling speed simply

The main measure is how many pieces sell per week. It is easy: divide the number sold by the number of weeks.

Say you bought 10 and 6 sold in two weeks. That is 3 a week. Now ask yourself: how many weeks am I willing to hold this item? If you do not want it sitting longer than four weeks, next time you buy 3 × 4 = 12. If you buy 40, they will sit for over three months and your money stays tied up all that time.

If an item sells slowly, it is not always a bad item: perhaps it is out of sight or customers simply do not notice it. So move it once to a visible place and watch for another week. Only then make your decision.

The decision rule

When the trial period ends (three weeks, say), compare the result with the rule written beforehand:

1. More than half sold: buy again, but in a quantity that matches the present speed, not in bulk.
2. About half sold: continue with small batches and try changing the colour or price once.
3. Almost nothing sold: sell off the rest at a discount and stop with this item.

Whatever the result, write it in the book: "February, 10 pieces, 2 sold in 3 weeks." Half a year later that note saves you from repeating the same mistake.

Even a good trial needs the season in mind: what sold in summer may not in winter, so note the month. Take the second batch a little larger, under the same rule.

Common mistakes

• mixing the trial item with other goods, so its sales cannot be seen;
• taking one customer's praise for the demand of the whole market;
• believing "everyone is buying it now" and buying in bulk;
• not setting the trial period and rule in advance;
• not recording the result in the hope that you will "remember".

Conclusion

Take the first step with a new item small: a small quantity, a clear period, a simple table and a decision rule written in advance. Then a mistake on a big batch costs far more than one on a trial batch. If after the trial you need an exact figure for what is left on the shelf and what has gone, the Sanab team can run a count and give you the result in a report.